According to Boeing’s most recent prediction, 3,610 aircraft will be in operation by 2041, an increase of 80% over the 2,010 aircraft that are now in service. Before the pandemic, there were 2,010 jet aircraft in the world’s freighter fleet in 2019. The fleet had increased to 2,250 freighters by the end of 2021. At the same time, freighter utilisation was operating at a level that was almost 125% over average.
In addition to providing much-needed capacity, the restoration of parked aircraft to the fleet has increased operations levels and will meet replacement demand for the duration of the projection period.
The fleet of freighters will increase by 80% from pre-pandemic levels during the next 20 years, or 3% annually on average.
According to Boeing, there will be about 2,800 production plus conversion deliveries, about half of which will replace retiring aircraft, and the other half will be used to increase the fleet’s size in order to accommodate anticipated traffic increases. Boeing predicts that in the next 20 years, China’s commercial fleet will double.
A freighter modification of a passenger aircraft will make up roughly two-thirds of all deliveries, with conventional-body aircraft accounting for about 70% of all deliveries. The prediction for this year is about 7% higher than it was last year, with rises in all sectors, reflecting both the higher anticipated traffic growth and the higher replacement needs.
The fleet is expected to increase by 90% over 2021 levels in the standard body segment as sustainable feedstock becomes more accessible and demand is increased by the expansion of e-commerce networks. With a predicted 1,300 conversions, the sector will continue to see conversions to satisfy expansion and replacement demand. On the replacement side, more effective aircraft will improve sustainability—and further expand capacity, as many of the aircraft being replaced are larger than today’s conversions.
It is anticipated that the fleet will increase by over 75% in the widebody class. Conversions and production deliveries are both higher this year than they were last. The medium segment will experience growth due to expanding express networks. Additionally, slightly over half of the 660 big widebody freighters in operation at the end of 2021 will be retired by then. Therefore, the 515-unit forecast for new widebody demand will cover both replacements as well as future growth.
The market for widebodies will continue to grow because operators need them for long-haul, multipurpose air freight service due to their benefits in terms of unit cost, utilisation, and range.
